Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Chicago vs Los Angeles: 3rd Quarter Winner?
Live event · 33.1h since start·WNBA
24¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
5¢crowd cost basis
+19¢distance from crowd basis
32.36×vol vs peers
79424h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
32.36×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
5¢Crowd cost basis
77%Cost-basis conviction
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 77% · profiled volume 783 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back