LT
Logit Terminal Research
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi (licensed)
Last updated2026-07-10T03:33
Status
Not trading advice

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Dallas wins by over 9.5 points?

Live event · 71.6h since start·WNBA

81¢current price
+12.00σoverextension z · high
80¢crowd cost basis
+1¢distance from crowd basis
4.43×vol vs peers
204,96524h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

4.43×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0522Category median logit vol/hr
80¢Crowd cost basis
70%Cost-basis conviction
262Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 80¢~29h before latest: 15.0¢~28h before latest: 15.0¢~27h before latest: 14.0¢~26h before latest: 15.0¢~25h before latest: 15.0¢~24h before latest: 16.0¢~23h before latest: 16.0¢~22h before latest: 15.0¢~21h before latest: 20.0¢~20h before latest: 18.0¢~19h before latest: 13.0¢~18h before latest: 14.0¢~17h before latest: 14.0¢~16h before latest: 14.0¢~15h before latest: 14.0¢~14h before latest: 14.0¢~13h before latest: 14.0¢~12h before latest: 14.0¢~11h before latest: 14.0¢~10h before latest: 14.0¢~9h before latest: 14.0¢~8h before latest: 14.0¢~7h before latest: 14.0¢~6h before latest: 14.0¢~5h before latest: 14.0¢~4h before latest: 14.0¢~3h before latest: 14.0¢~2h before latest: 57.0¢~1h before latest: 53.0¢latest: 81.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 70% · profiled volume 169,723 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.029,78259,56489,345119,1270¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 1,273 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 49,323 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 119,127 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

44% GAVE BACK
56% CONTINUED
262unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
9%avg move given back