Overview / Economics / Contract detail
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?
Settles Jul 20, 12AM ET·Aaagasw
31¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
65¢crowd cost basis
-34¢distance from crowd basis
1.36×vol vs peers
1,91124h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Economics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
1.36×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0294Category median logit vol/hr
65¢Crowd cost basis
90%Cost-basis conviction
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 90% · profiled volume 6,033 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.