Overview / Elections / Contract detail
Who will be the Republican nominee for Attorney General in Arizona?
Closes in 370d·Agnomazr
94¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
95¢crowd cost basis
-1¢distance from crowd basis
13.15×vol vs peers
23924h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Elections cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
13.15×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0044Category median logit vol/hr
95¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 106 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.