LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-30T15:10
Status—
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Matteo Arnaldi win at least 3.5 more games than Damir Dzumhur?

Live event · 347.2h since start·Tennis

13¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
50¢crowd cost basis
-37¢distance from crowd basis
2.67×vol vs peers
83524h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

2.67×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0465Category median logit vol/hr
50¢Crowd cost basis
61%Cost-basis conviction

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ETJul 16, 1:09PM ETJul 16, 3:03PM ETCrowd basis 50¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ET: 49.0¢Jul 16, 11:23AM ET: 49.0¢Jul 16, 11:32AM ET: 49.0¢Jul 16, 11:41AM ET: 49.0¢Jul 16, 11:50AM ET: 49.0¢Jul 16, 11:59AM ET: 49.5¢Jul 16, 12:08PM ET: 41.0¢Jul 16, 12:17PM ET: 58.5¢Jul 16, 12:26PM ET: 61.0¢Jul 16, 12:35PM ET: 63.5¢Jul 16, 12:43PM ET: 72.5¢Jul 16, 12:52PM ET: 54.5¢Jul 16, 1PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 1:09PM ET: 28.5¢Jul 16, 1:17PM ET: 38.5¢Jul 16, 1:26PM ET: 28.0¢Jul 16, 1:35PM ET: 28.5¢Jul 16, 1:44PM ET: 28.0¢Jul 16, 1:53PM ET: 20.5¢Jul 16, 2:02PM ET: 20.0¢Jul 16, 2:10PM ET: 18.0¢Jul 16, 2:19PM ET: 20.0¢Jul 16, 2:28PM ET: 22.5¢Jul 16, 2:37PM ET: 21.5¢Jul 16, 2:45PM ET: 26.5¢Jul 16, 2:53PM ET: 19.0¢Jul 16, 3:03PM ET: 13.0¢Collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 61% · profiled volume 6,081 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.09221,8432,7643,6860¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ current price bucket: 82 contracts20¢ price bucket: 159 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 31 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 623 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 3,686 contracts55¢ price bucket: 37 contracts60¢ price bucket: 1,346 contracts65¢ price bucket: 99 contracts70¢ price bucket: 18 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts0¢10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.