Overview / Elections / Contract detail
Will Kai Newkirk be the Democratic nominee for AZ-04?
Closes in 461d·Azprimary
6¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
—crowd cost basis
—distance from crowd basis
13.88×vol vs peers
57424h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Elections cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
13.88×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0044Category median logit vol/hr
—Crowd cost basis
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.