LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-30T15:10
Status—
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Commodities / Contract detail

Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85 USD/Bbl on July 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET

18¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
60¢crowd cost basis
-42¢distance from crowd basis
2.01×vol vs peers
41824h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Commodities cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

2.01×Vol vs comparable peers
0.3354Category median logit vol/hr
60¢Crowd cost basis
20%Cost-basis conviction

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ETJul 16, 1:09PM ETJul 16, 3:03PM ETCrowd basis 60¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ET: 52.5¢Jul 16, 11:23AM ET: 44.0¢Jul 16, 11:32AM ET: 48.5¢Jul 16, 11:41AM ET: 36.5¢Jul 16, 11:50AM ET: 45.0¢Jul 16, 11:59AM ET: 41.5¢Jul 16, 12:08PM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 12:17PM ET: 49.5¢Jul 16, 12:26PM ET: 57.5¢Jul 16, 12:35PM ET: 41.5¢Jul 16, 12:43PM ET: 43.5¢Jul 16, 12:52PM ET: 38.0¢Jul 16, 1PM ET: 27.5¢Jul 16, 1:09PM ET: 30.5¢Jul 16, 1:17PM ET: 31.5¢Jul 16, 1:26PM ET: 28.5¢Jul 16, 1:35PM ET: 32.5¢Jul 16, 1:44PM ET: 28.5¢Jul 16, 1:53PM ET: 25.5¢Jul 16, 2:02PM ET: 21.5¢Jul 16, 2:10PM ET: 25.0¢Jul 16, 2:19PM ET: 17.5¢Jul 16, 2:28PM ET: 21.5¢Jul 16, 2:37PM ET: 16.5¢Jul 16, 2:45PM ET: 15.5¢Jul 16, 2:53PM ET: 14.5¢Jul 16, 3:03PM ET: 17.5¢Collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 20% · profiled volume 5,089 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.02494987479960¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 269 contracts20¢ current price bucket: 820 contracts25¢ price bucket: 783 contracts30¢ price bucket: 832 contracts35¢ price bucket: 3 contracts40¢ price bucket: 777 contracts45¢ price bucket: 276 contracts50¢ price bucket: 333 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 996 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts0¢10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.