Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Chengdu Rongcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong FC Winner?
Live event · 11.6h since start·Other sports
52¢current price
-12.00σoverextension z · medium
65¢crowd cost basis
-12¢distance from crowd basis
6.27×vol vs peers
22,80524h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
6.27×Vol vs comparable peers
0.058Category median logit vol/hr
65¢Crowd cost basis
44%Cost-basis conviction
6479Similar category unusual moves
43%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 44% · profiled volume 24,570 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
6479unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
43%partial reversion rate
20%avg move given back