Overview / Elections / Contract detail
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Settles Jan 3, 12AM ET·Closestsenat
18¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
20¢crowd cost basis
-2¢distance from crowd basis
0.04×vol vs peers
20224h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Elections cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
0.04×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0044Category median logit vol/hr
20¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 4,693 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.