LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-30T15:10
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Mads Pedersen win Stage 12 in the 2026 Tour de France?

Closes in 10d·Other sports

50¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
crowd cost basis
distance from crowd basis
35.67×vol vs peers
96224h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

35.67×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0465Category median logit vol/hr
Crowd cost basis

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ETJul 16, 12:17PM ETJul 16, 1:17PM ETJul 16, 11:15AM ET: 9.0¢Jul 16, 11:23AM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 11:32AM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 11:41AM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 11:50AM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 11:59AM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 12:08PM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 12:17PM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 12:26PM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 12:35PM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 12:43PM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 12:52PM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 1PM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 1:09PM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 1:17PM ET: 50.0¢Collected snapshot time