Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Fredrikstad vs Lillestroem Winner?
Live event · 11.6h since start·Other sports
66¢current price
+12.00σoverextension z · medium
35¢crowd cost basis
+32¢distance from crowd basis
4.89×vol vs peers
51,42524h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
4.89×Vol vs comparable peers
0.058Category median logit vol/hr
35¢Crowd cost basis
91%Cost-basis conviction
6479Similar category unusual moves
43%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 91% · profiled volume 55,139 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
6479unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
43%partial reversion rate
20%avg move given back