LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-30T15:10
Status—
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Economics / Contract detail

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET·Feddecision

52¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
50¢crowd cost basis
+2¢distance from crowd basis
3.86×vol vs peers
228,70124h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Economics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

3.86×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0294Category median logit vol/hr
50¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ETJul 16, 1:17PM ETJul 30, 11:07AM ETCrowd basis 50¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 11:23AM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 11:32AM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 11:41AM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 11:50AM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 11:59AM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 12:08PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 12:17PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 12:26PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 12:35PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 12:43PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 12:52PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 1PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 1:09PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 1:17PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 1:26PM ET: 29.5¢Jul 16, 1:35PM ET: 32.0¢Jul 16, 1:44PM ET: 32.0¢Jul 16, 1:53PM ET: 32.0¢Jul 16, 2:02PM ET: 32.0¢Jul 16, 2:10PM ET: 33.0¢Jul 16, 2:19PM ET: 33.0¢Jul 16, 2:28PM ET: 35.0¢Jul 16, 2:37PM ET: 34.5¢Jul 16, 2:45PM ET: 35.0¢Jul 16, 2:53PM ET: 35.0¢Jul 16, 3:03PM ET: 35.0¢Jul 30, 11:07AM ET: 52.5¢Collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 274,083 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.068,494136,988205,483273,9770¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 106 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 273,977 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts0¢10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.