LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-30T15:10
Status—
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Elections / Contract detail

Will Michael Carbonara be the Republican nominee for FL-22?

Closes in 461d·Flprimary

72¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
70¢crowd cost basis
+2¢distance from crowd basis
38.55×vol vs peers
70824h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Elections cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

38.55×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0044Category median logit vol/hr
70¢Crowd cost basis
99%Cost-basis conviction

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ETJul 16, 1:17PM ETJul 30, 11:07AM ETCrowd basis 70¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 11:23AM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 11:32AM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 11:41AM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 11:50AM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 11:59AM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 12:08PM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 12:17PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 12:26PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 12:35PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 12:43PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 12:52PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 1PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 1:09PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 1:17PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 1:26PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 1:35PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 1:44PM ET: 90.5¢Jul 16, 1:53PM ET: 92.5¢Jul 16, 2:02PM ET: 92.5¢Jul 16, 2:10PM ET: 92.5¢Jul 16, 2:19PM ET: 92.5¢Jul 16, 2:28PM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 2:37PM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 2:45PM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 2:53PM ET: 91.5¢Jul 16, 3:03PM ET: 91.5¢Jul 30, 11:07AM ET: 72.5¢Collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 99% · profiled volume 24,445 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.06,06112,12218,18424,2450¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 24,245 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 200 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts0¢10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.