Overview / Climate and Weather / Contract detail
Will the maximum temperature be 99-100° on Jul 16, 2026?
Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightdc
84¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
20¢crowd cost basis
+64¢distance from crowd basis
3.89×vol vs peers
93324h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Climate and Weather cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
3.89×Vol vs comparable peers
0.4666Category median logit vol/hr
20¢Crowd cost basis
50%Cost-basis conviction
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 50% · profiled volume 1,307 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.