LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T15:35
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Crypto / Contract detail

HYPE price on Jul 11, 2026?

Settles Jul 11, 12AM ET

86¢current price
+0.59σoverextension z · high
80¢crowd cost basis
+6¢distance from crowd basis
1.54×vol vs peers
20924h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Crypto cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

1.54×Vol vs comparable peers
0.1978Category median logit vol/hr
80¢Crowd cost basis
94%Cost-basis conviction
145Similar category unusual moves
24%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 80¢~29h before latest: 64.0¢~28h before latest: 68.0¢~27h before latest: 70.0¢~26h before latest: 67.0¢~25h before latest: 64.0¢~24h before latest: 64.0¢~23h before latest: 66.0¢~22h before latest: 63.0¢~21h before latest: 64.0¢~20h before latest: 71.0¢~19h before latest: 74.0¢~18h before latest: 75.0¢~17h before latest: 70.0¢~16h before latest: 71.0¢~15h before latest: 80.0¢~14h before latest: 76.0¢~13h before latest: 77.0¢~12h before latest: 76.0¢~11h before latest: 78.0¢~10h before latest: 82.0¢~9h before latest: 83.0¢~8h before latest: 82.0¢~7h before latest: 82.0¢~6h before latest: 88.0¢~5h before latest: 88.0¢~4h before latest: 90.0¢~3h before latest: 90.0¢~2h before latest: 88.0¢~1h before latest: 76.0¢latest: 82.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 94% · profiled volume 201 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.046931401860¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 3 contracts70¢ price bucket: 10 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 186 contracts85¢ current price bucket: 2 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Crypto reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

24% GAVE BACK
76% CONTINUED
145unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
24%partial reversion rate
5%avg move given back