LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T15:35
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Casandra Alexander win the The Amundi Evian Championship?

Closes in 14d·Other sports

current price
overextension z · insufficient
crowd cost basis
+9¢distance from crowd basis
18.47×vol vs peers
1,48924h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

18.47×Vol vs comparable peers
0.058Category median logit vol/hr
Crowd cost basis
54%Cost-basis conviction
6479Similar category unusual moves
43%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~25h ago~12h agolatestCrowd basis 0¢~25h before latest: 1.0¢~24h before latest: 1.0¢~23h before latest: 1.0¢~22h before latest: 1.0¢~21h before latest: 1.0¢~20h before latest: 1.0¢~19h before latest: 1.0¢~18h before latest: 1.0¢~17h before latest: 1.0¢~16h before latest: 1.0¢~15h before latest: 1.0¢~14h before latest: 1.0¢~13h before latest: 1.0¢~12h before latest: 1.0¢~11h before latest: 1.0¢~10h before latest: 1.0¢~9h before latest: 1.0¢~8h before latest: 1.0¢~7h before latest: 1.0¢~6h before latest: 1.0¢~5h before latest: 1.0¢~4h before latest: 1.0¢~3h before latest: 1.0¢~2h before latest: 9.0¢~1h before latest: 9.0¢latest: 9.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 54% · profiled volume 346 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.047941411880¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 188 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ current price bucket: 158 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

43% GAVE BACK
57% CONTINUED
6479unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
43%partial reversion rate
20%avg move given back