Overview / Elections / Contract detail
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?
Closes in 461d·Midtermmov
52¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
50¢crowd cost basis
+2¢distance from crowd basis
0.55×vol vs peers
50024h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Elections cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
0.55×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0044Category median logit vol/hr
50¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 726 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.