LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T15:35
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Entertainment / Contract detail

#2 US Netflix Movie on Jul 13, 2026?

Settles Jul 13, 12AM ET·Netflixrankm

15¢current price
-0.43σoverextension z · high
65¢crowd cost basis
-50¢distance from crowd basis
0.39×vol vs peers
14,85824h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Entertainment cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

0.39×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0491Category median logit vol/hr
65¢Crowd cost basis
42%Cost-basis conviction
1452Similar category unusual moves
30%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 65¢~29h before latest: 44.0¢~28h before latest: 43.0¢~27h before latest: 43.0¢~26h before latest: 44.0¢~25h before latest: 34.0¢~24h before latest: 31.0¢~23h before latest: 40.0¢~22h before latest: 30.0¢~21h before latest: 22.0¢~20h before latest: 23.0¢~19h before latest: 26.0¢~18h before latest: 41.0¢~17h before latest: 38.0¢~16h before latest: 26.0¢~15h before latest: 24.0¢~14h before latest: 39.0¢~13h before latest: 33.0¢~12h before latest: 36.0¢~11h before latest: 35.0¢~10h before latest: 36.0¢~9h before latest: 25.0¢~8h before latest: 22.0¢~7h before latest: 17.0¢~6h before latest: 22.0¢~5h before latest: 20.0¢~4h before latest: 24.0¢~3h before latest: 22.0¢~2h before latest: 18.0¢~1h before latest: 17.0¢latest: 17.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 42% · profiled volume 19,600 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.01,6353,2704,9046,5390¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ current price bucket: 54 contracts20¢ price bucket: 1,679 contracts25¢ price bucket: 2,343 contracts30¢ price bucket: 842 contracts35¢ price bucket: 2,772 contracts40¢ price bucket: 3,347 contracts45¢ price bucket: 246 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 6,539 contracts70¢ price bucket: 1,778 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Entertainment reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

30% GAVE BACK
70% CONTINUED
1452unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
30%partial reversion rate
7%avg move given back