LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T15:35
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Brian Harman beat Eric Cole in the 3rd round of the Genesis Scottish Open?

Closes in 14d·Golf

75¢current price
+11.04σoverextension z · high
45¢crowd cost basis
+30¢distance from crowd basis
3.4×vol vs peers
1,45524h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

3.4×Vol vs comparable peers
0.058Category median logit vol/hr
45¢Crowd cost basis
98%Cost-basis conviction
6479Similar category unusual moves
43%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 45¢~29h before latest: 42.0¢~28h before latest: 42.0¢~27h before latest: 42.0¢~26h before latest: 42.0¢~25h before latest: 42.0¢~24h before latest: 42.0¢~23h before latest: 42.0¢~22h before latest: 44.0¢~21h before latest: 46.0¢~20h before latest: 46.0¢~19h before latest: 46.0¢~18h before latest: 46.0¢~17h before latest: 46.0¢~16h before latest: 46.0¢~15h before latest: 46.0¢~14h before latest: 46.0¢~13h before latest: 46.0¢~12h before latest: 46.0¢~11h before latest: 46.0¢~10h before latest: 46.0¢~9h before latest: 46.0¢~8h before latest: 46.0¢~7h before latest: 48.0¢~6h before latest: 48.0¢~5h before latest: 48.0¢~4h before latest: 48.0¢~3h before latest: 48.0¢~2h before latest: 48.0¢~1h before latest: 66.0¢latest: 72.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 98% · profiled volume 1,395 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.03066139201,2260¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 145 contracts45¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 1,226 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 24 contracts75¢ current price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

43% GAVE BACK
57% CONTINUED
6479unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
43%partial reversion rate
20%avg move given back