Will Nacho Elvira beat Tom McKibbin in the 3rd round of the

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Will Nacho Elvira beat Tom McKibbin in the 3rd round of the Genesis Scottish Open?

Closes in 14d·Golf

50¢current price

—overextension z · insufficient

—crowd cost basis

—distance from crowd basis

20.15×vol vs peers

67424h contracts

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

20.15×Vol vs comparable peers

0.058Category median logit vol/hr

—Crowd cost basis

6479Similar category unusual moves

43%Partial reversion base rate

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

43% GAVE BACK

57% CONTINUED

6479unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)

43%partial reversion rate

20%avg move given back