LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-30T15:10
Status—
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Ludvig Aberg shoot under 69.5 in Round 1?

Closes in 34h·Golf

4¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
45¢crowd cost basis
-41¢distance from crowd basis
22.6×vol vs peers
6,49024h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

22.6×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0465Category median logit vol/hr
45¢Crowd cost basis
49%Cost-basis conviction

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ETJul 16, 1:09PM ETJul 16, 3:03PM ETCrowd basis 45¢Jul 16, 11:15AM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 11:23AM ET: 50.0¢Jul 16, 11:32AM ET: 49.0¢Jul 16, 11:41AM ET: 67.5¢Jul 16, 11:50AM ET: 67.5¢Jul 16, 11:59AM ET: 67.5¢Jul 16, 12:08PM ET: 67.5¢Jul 16, 12:17PM ET: 67.5¢Jul 16, 12:26PM ET: 9.0¢Jul 16, 12:35PM ET: 8.5¢Jul 16, 12:43PM ET: 23.5¢Jul 16, 12:52PM ET: 27.5¢Jul 16, 1PM ET: 20.5¢Jul 16, 1:09PM ET: 20.5¢Jul 16, 1:17PM ET: 20.5¢Jul 16, 1:26PM ET: 21.5¢Jul 16, 1:35PM ET: 22.5¢Jul 16, 1:44PM ET: 22.5¢Jul 16, 1:53PM ET: 41.0¢Jul 16, 2:02PM ET: 37.0¢Jul 16, 2:10PM ET: 42.5¢Jul 16, 2:19PM ET: 45.0¢Jul 16, 2:28PM ET: 43.5¢Jul 16, 2:37PM ET: 26.5¢Jul 16, 2:45PM ET: 20.0¢Jul 16, 2:53PM ET: 4.0¢Jul 16, 3:03PM ET: 4.0¢Collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 49% · profiled volume 2,500 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.02334666999320¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ current price bucket: 56 contracts10¢ price bucket: 94 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 147 contracts25¢ price bucket: 777 contracts30¢ price bucket: 92 contracts35¢ price bucket: 99 contracts40¢ price bucket: 30 contracts45¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 932 contracts50¢ price bucket: 257 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 16 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts0¢10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.