Overview / Elections / Contract detail
Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
Closes in 831d·Presnomd
5¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
5¢crowd cost basis
+0¢distance from crowd basis
21.29×vol vs peers
2,00524h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Elections cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
21.29×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0044Category median logit vol/hr
5¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 222,917 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.