Overview / Financials / Contract detail
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 16, 2026?
Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET
12¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
65¢crowd cost basis
-54¢distance from crowd basis
2.31×vol vs peers
25924h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Financials cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
2.31×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0274Category median logit vol/hr
65¢Crowd cost basis
57%Cost-basis conviction
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis; the purple dashed line marks the final pre-event probability; the blue vertical line marks event start when those values are available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 57% · profiled volume 148 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.