Overview / Politics / Contract detail
Will Thom Tillis vote for Todd Blanche?
Closes in 175d·Voteblanche
80¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
65¢crowd cost basis
+16¢distance from crowd basis
29.12×vol vs peers
95724h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Politics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
29.12×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0334Category median logit vol/hr
65¢Crowd cost basis
70%Cost-basis conviction
30Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 70% · profiled volume 962 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Politics reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
30unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back