Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will Paula Badosa win the Waltert vs Badosa: Final match?
Live event · 11.6h since start·Tennis
94¢current price
+12.00σoverextension z · medium
95¢crowd cost basis
-2¢distance from crowd basis
5.62×vol vs peers
302,77124h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
5.62×Vol vs comparable peers
0.058Category median logit vol/hr
95¢Crowd cost basis
43%Cost-basis conviction
6479Similar category unusual moves
43%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 43% · profiled volume 518,780 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
6479unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
43%partial reversion rate
20%avg move given back