Election Markets

Election markets are long-duration, continuous markets: settlement is infrequent, calibration samples accrue slowly, and probability movement matters more than any single print.

Market	Price	Z	Vol vs peers	Distance	Since start	Vol 24h
Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? Closes in 0h·Trumpattend	97¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.42×	+2¢	—	744,193
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? Closes in 0h·Trumpworldcu	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	—	164,059
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? Closes in 158d·Saveact	7¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	8.74×	+2¢	—	98,120
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Closes in 905d	76¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	47.1×	+2¢	—	79,656
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026? Settles Aug 1, 12AM ET·Blanchejudic	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.49×	+2¢	—	56,800
Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Sep 1, 2026? Closes in 33d·Cryptostruct	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.54×	+2¢	—	49,361
Will Trump buy Greenland? Closes in 155d·Greenland	5¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.22×	+0¢	—	42,532
Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Aug 1, 2026? Closes in 47h·Cryptostruct	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.37×	-1¢	—	33,355
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? Closes in 0h·Trumpworldcu	98¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.19×	+2¢	—	30,797
Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Oct 1, 2026? Closes in 63d·Cryptostruct	18¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	10.31×	-2¢	—	24,246
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.03×	+2¢	—	21,499
Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? Settles Jul 19, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	88¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.45×	+2¢	—	21,411
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 15, 2026? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.46×	+2¢	—	17,113
Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026? Closes in 47h·Lagodays	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.15×	+1¢	—	15,944
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	40¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.24×	-0¢	—	15,904
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? Closes in 37h·Tariffchecks	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	—	15,774
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August? Closes in 47h·Usairanagree	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	—	15,704
Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote? Settles Nov 3, 12AM ET·Housepopvote	11¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.24×	+1¢	—	13,815
Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Closes in 9d·Clarityvote	48¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	3.99×	-2¢	—	13,047
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	30¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.19×	+0¢	—	10,451
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Sep 1, 2026? Settles Sep 1, 12AM ET·Blanchejudic	42¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.71×	+2¢	—	10,215
When will marijuana be rescheduled? Closes in 155d·Mjschedule	20¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.46×	-0¢	—	9,280
Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027? Closes in 155d·Cryptostruct	36¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	4.51×	+2¢	—	9,102
Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Leavewalz	7¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	9.16×	+2¢	—	8,754
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	52¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.66×	+2¢	—	8,557
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 38% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Trumpapprova	84¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.42×	-2¢	—	8,448
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? Closes in 155d·Tariffchecks	7¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+2¢	—	8,391
Will there be more than 75 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? Settles Jul 19, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	40¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.42×	-4¢	—	8,359
Will the President's approval rating be below 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 17, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.58×	+1¢	—	8,333
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	14¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.81×	-2¢	—	8,287
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before Jan 2027? Closes in 155d	16¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.02×	+0¢	—	8,274
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Closes in 905d	8¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	36.1×	-2¢	—	7,803
Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? Settles Jul 19, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	18¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.43×	+3¢	—	7,756
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	22¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.23×	+2¢	—	6,994
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? Closes in 155d·Usairanagree	14¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	4.2×	-0¢	—	6,962
Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026? Settles Oct 1, 12AM ET·Govtshutdown	26¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.53×	+2¢	—	6,938
Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Nov 1, 2026? Closes in 94d·Cryptostruct	22¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	3.33×	+2¢	—	6,928
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? Closes in 186d·Bluetsunamic	40¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.22×	+0¢	—	6,659
Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? Settles Jul 19, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	78¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.25×	-2¢	—	6,599
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Jul 2026? Closes in 37h·Newtariffs	49¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	3.82×	-1¢	—	6,530
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	59¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.09×	-1¢	—	6,397
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? Closes in 63d·Usairanagree	8¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.18×	-2¢	—	6,373
Will Donald Trump make between 220 and 240 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 12, 2026? Settles Jul 18, 12AM ET·Truthsocial	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.67×	+0¢	—	6,285
Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026? Settles Jun 5, 12AM ET	28¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.43×	-2¢	—	5,018
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Sep 1, 2026? Closes in 33d·Hegsethout	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.25×	+2¢	—	4,966
Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 12, 2026? Settles Jul 18, 12AM ET·Truthsocial	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.49×	-2¢	—	4,793
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 17, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.52×	-0¢	—	4,771
Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 17, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	14¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.81×	+4¢	—	4,732
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 20 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? Settles Jul 19, 12AM ET·Hormuzpeak	44¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.12×	-2¢	—	4,589
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Closes in 905d	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	39.1×	-0¢	—	4,578
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Pahlavivisit	8¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	3.59×	-2¢	—	4,294
Will the President's approval rating be between 39.9 and 40.1 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 17, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.2×	+1¢	—	4,230
Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Trumpadminle	36¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.25×	+0¢	—	4,124
Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	24¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.78×	-2¢	—	3,973
Will a crypto market structure bill become law before Apr 1, 2027? Closes in 245d·Cryptostruct	32¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.37×	+2¢	—	3,953
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 17, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.42×	+2¢	—	3,854
Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Trumpadminle	32¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.05×	+2¢	—	3,839
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect before Aug 1, 2026? Closes in 37h·Crudeexportb	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.25×	+1¢	—	3,789
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 17, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	50¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.81×	+0¢	—	3,671
Will the President's approval rating be between 39.6 and 39.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 17, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.58×	+1¢	—	3,643

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