Election Markets

Election markets are long-duration, continuous markets: settlement is infrequent, calibration samples accrue slowly, and probability movement matters more than any single print.

Market	Price	Z	Vol vs peers	Distance	Vol 24h
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 329? Closes in 2d·Trumpufc	2¢	+0.00	0.84×	+2¢	303,266
Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? Closes in 10d·Trumpattend	91¢	-0.91	0.66×	+1¢	106,488
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? Closes in 53d·Usairanagree	12¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.24×	-2¢	59,014
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? Closes in 178d·Saveact	7¢	+0.00MEDIUM	1.08×	-3¢	48,833
Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Aug 1, 2026? Closes in 22d·Cryptostruct	8¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.49×	-2¢	41,726
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August? Closes in 22d·Usairanagree	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.2×	+2¢	40,505
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	4¢	+0.00	1.37×	-2¢	28,664
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	26¢	+0.00	1.14×	+2¢	28,396
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026? Closes in 22d·Alitoannounc	8¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.76×	-2¢	26,749
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	58¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.32×	-2¢	25,650
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	16¢	-1.46	1.23×	+0¢	21,396
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 15, 2026? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.89×	+1¢	20,062
Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026? Closes in 22d·Kashout	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.85×	+0¢	14,323
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	76¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	8.58×	-4¢	12,624
Will Amy Gleason leaves Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service in before 2027? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Trumpadminle	66¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.11×	+2¢	11,658
Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hfhousing	98¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	4.21×	-2¢	11,656
Will Samuel Alito retires the Supreme Court in before September? Settles Sep 1, 12AM ET·Alitoout	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.63×	-1¢	11,113
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? Closes in 175d·Usairanagree	32¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.11×	+2¢	10,741
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm	41¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.2×	+1¢	10,038
Will the President's approval rating be between 39.6 and 39.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.17×	+1¢	9,934
Will the President's approval rating be below 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.17×	+1¢	9,933
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	64¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.66×	+8¢	9,885
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? Closes in 11d·Trumpworldcu	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.09×	-0¢	9,582
Will the President's approval rating be between 39.9 and 40.1 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.32×	+1¢	9,352
Will bill that mandates the creation and issuance of a $250 U.S. bill featuring Donald J. Trump's likeness becomes law before Jan 1, 2027? Closes in 175d·General	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.32×	+2¢	9,279
Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Settles Jul 12, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	8¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.38×	-2¢	8,866
Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Settles Jul 12, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	48¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.14×	-17¢	8,682
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 50 in Jul 2026? Settles Jul 31, 12AM ET·Maxshipshorm	28¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.12×	-2¢	8,559
Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Settles Jul 12, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	25¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.63×	-15¢	8,349
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	28¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.22×	-2¢	7,576
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.07×	-14¢	7,492
Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote? Settles Nov 3, 12AM ET·Housepopvote	14¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.48×	-2¢	6,838
Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Lagodays	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.39×	+2¢	6,427
Will there be more than 125 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Settles Jul 12, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	88¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.81×	+8¢	6,079
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Closes in 925d	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+0¢	5,898
Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Trumpadminle	42¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.1×	+2¢	5,770
Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027? Closes in 175d·Cryptostruct	38¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	-2¢	5,765
Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.2×	+0¢	5,439
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? Closes in 11d·Trumpworldcu	90¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.11×	+0¢	5,317
Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term? Settles Jan 21, 12AM ET·Greenlandpri	82¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.23×	+2¢	5,255
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027? Closes in 206d·Balancepower	44¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.35×	-2¢	5,200
Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Settles Jul 12, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	95¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	6.08×	+0¢	5,148
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Nov 3, 2026? Closes in 116d·Demschumer	30¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	3.51×	+6¢	4,879
Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day? Closes in 175d·Hfhousing	99¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	-1¢	4,713
Will Trump buy Greenland? Closes in 925d·Greenland	18¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.44×	-2¢	4,575
Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics? Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Aprpotus	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+2¢	4,550
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? Closes in 22d·Tariffchecks	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	4,278
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Closes in 925d	78¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.18×	-2¢	4,177
Will President Trump resign before his term is up? Closes in 926d·Trumpresign	20¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.75×	-4¢	3,996
Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 220 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 5, 2026? Settles Jul 11, 12AM ET·Truthsocial	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.87×	-2¢	3,896
Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Trumpadminle	68¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.48×	-2¢	3,756
Will Graham Platner and Susan Collins debate each other in 2026? Closes in 116d·Platnercolli	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.24×	+2¢	3,632
Will Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average be above 40.2% at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 10, 2026? Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Trumpvh	98¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.21×	+14¢	3,599
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026? Closes in 4d·Roadoutcome	76¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.89×	+6¢	3,552
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Sep 1, 2026? Closes in 53d·Iranembassy	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	3.25×	+1¢	3,507
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%? Settles Nov 3, 12AM ET·Housepopvote	11¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	3,424
Will there be more than 225 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Settles Jul 12, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.99×	+2¢	3,370
Will Samuel Alito retires the Supreme Court in before 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Alitoout	14¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.73×	-0¢	3,345
Will Xi Jinping visit the United States of America before Oct 1, 2026? Settles Jul 7, 12AM ET	81¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.62×	+1¢	3,280
Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Settles Jul 12, 12AM ET·Hormuzweekly	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.41×	+2¢	3,254

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