Fed Rate Markets

Federal Reserve rate-decision markets: decision windows, implied probabilities, and movement leading into meetings.

Market	Price	Z	Vol vs peers	Distance	Since start	Vol 24h
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision	96¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+0¢	—	1,122,490
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.45×	-2¢	—	621,708
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET·Feddecision	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.6×	+2¢	—	237,980
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET·Feddecision	52¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	3.86×	+2¢	—	228,701
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	—	211,958
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Fedhike	64¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	9.65×	-0¢	—	147,686
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET·Feddecision	45¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.91×	+0¢	—	123,477
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET·Feddecision	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	—	76,462
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET·Feddecision	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.12×	+2¢	—	68,979
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	—	53,925
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	-2¢	—	40,900
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	—	35,598
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027? Settles Jun 30, 12AM ET·Fedhike	74¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	8.02×	-2¢	—	24,845
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Fedhike	78¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.14×	-2¢	—	16,165
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET	56¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.93×	+2¢	—	14,066
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting? Settles Jan 27, 2PM ET·Feddecision	59¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	-1¢	—	9,808
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	30.63×	+2¢	—	9,586
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	—	8,088
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET	100¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.32×	-0¢	—	5,367
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? Settles Jan 27, 2PM ET·Feddecision	8¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	3.24×	-2¢	—	4,780
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET·Feddecision	66¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	11.7×	+1¢	—	4,164
Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	24¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.78×	-2¢	—	3,973
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? Settles Jan 27, 2PM ET·Feddecision	22¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.73×	+2¢	—	2,958
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET·Feddecision	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.68×	-2¢	—	2,950
Will Joe Biden be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.32×	+2¢	—	2,829
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? Settles Dec 9, 2PM ET·Feddecision	36¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.83×	+2¢	—	1,711
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting? Settles Jan 27, 2PM ET·Feddecision	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.89×	+1¢	—	1,698
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? Settles Dec 9, 2PM ET	29¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	17.53×	-1¢	—	1,553
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? Settles Dec 9, 2PM ET·Feddecision	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	5.97×	-0¢	—	1,460
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Federal Reserve Chair does not hold a press conference following a regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting before Jan 1, 2027? Closes in 155d·Fedreform	12¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.47×	+2¢	—	1,342
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Fedchgcount	24¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.78×	-0¢	—	1,173
Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	9¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.2×	-1¢	—	1,120
Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	32¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.3×	+2¢	—	1,056
Will Gavin Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	18¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.25×	-2¢	—	1,003
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? Settles Dec 9, 2PM ET·Feddecision	60¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.1×	+0¢	—	934
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections before Jan 1, 2027? Closes in 155d·Fedreform	32¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.98×	+2¢	—	918
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting? Settles Jan 27, 2PM ET·Feddecision	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	2.22×	+1¢	—	808
Will Jack Smith be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	32¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.2×	+2¢	—	782
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting? Settles Jul 28, 2PM ET·Feddecision	78¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.93×	-2¢	—	781
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting? Settles Sep 15, 2PM ET·Feddecision	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	4.73×	-2¢	—	761
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? Closes in 0h·Feddissent	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	—	—	750
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? Settles Dec 9, 2PM ET	68¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.35×	-2¢	—	741
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET·Feddecision	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.12×	+2¢	—	734
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET	100¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	-0¢	—	572
Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	43¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.43×	-2¢	—	523
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? Closes in 0h·Feddissent	4¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	—	—	516
Will Joe Kent be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	10¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.33×	+0¢	—	443
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET	98¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	4.02×	-2¢	—	443
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Fedchgcount	39¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.3×	-1¢	—	442
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026? Closes in 0h·Fedcombo	56¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.44×	+2¢	—	437
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+2¢	—	400
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET	98¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	-2¢	—	400
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.46×	+2¢	—	400
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET	62¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	4.31×	+2¢	—	372
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026? Closes in 0h·Fedcombo	46¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.14×	—	—	356
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Fedchgcount	21¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.03×	+1¢	—	305
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET·Feddecision	21¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	7.88×	+1¢	—	287
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting? Settles Jun 9, 2PM ET·Feddecision	14¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	3.2×	-1¢	—	278
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? Closes in 0h·Feddissent	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	—	—	266
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? Settles Mar 17, 2PM ET	52¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	9.85×	+2¢	—	249

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