Fed Rate Markets

Federal Reserve rate-decision markets: decision windows, implied probabilities, and movement leading into meetings.

Market	Price	Z	Vol vs peers	Distance	Vol 24h
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision	86¢	+2.23MEDIUM	0.61×	+0¢	270,357
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision	14¢	+2.30	0.63×	-6¢	118,375
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision	2¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.76×	+2¢	94,946
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET	100¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	-0¢	65,172
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET	14¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.04×	-6¢	63,901
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET	100¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	-0¢	21,687
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET	98¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.58×	-2¢	15,310
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	10,045
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Fedhike	50¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.95×	-4¢	9,289
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	4,217
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET·Feddecision	58¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.83×	+4¢	1,689
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 10AM ET·Fedmeet	8¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.85×	-2¢	1,182
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	5.27×	+1¢	1,123
Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System? Closes in 175d·Fedgovnom	40¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.14×	+0¢	898
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before Jan 20, 2029? Closes in 925d	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	734
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.89×	+1¢	664
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026? Closes in 20d·Fedcombo	42¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.11×	+2¢	588
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.55×	+1¢	540
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026? Closes in 20d·Fedcombo	42¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.17×	+2¢	509
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Fedhike	76¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.5×	-4¢	501
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026? Closes in 20d·Fedcombo	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.48×	+1¢	488
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026? Closes in 20d·Fedcombo	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.9×	-4¢	488
Will Chris Christie be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	6¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	400
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? Settles Dec 9, 2PM ET	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	3.05×	+1¢	390
Will Kevin Warsh say Event does not qualify at his Jul 2026 press conference? Closes in 20d·Fedmention	8¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	1.28×	-2¢	347
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET	44¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.74×	+4¢	319
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET·Feddecision	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	304
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? Settles Dec 9, 2PM ET	82¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	4.46×	+2¢	228
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027? Settles Jun 30, 12AM ET·Fedhike	64¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.58×	-2¢	216
Will Jennifer Siebel Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	18¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	-2¢	199
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET	1¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+1¢	166
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? Settles Oct 28, 2PM ET	3¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.71×	-2¢	164
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET	100¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	-0¢	159
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting? Settles Sep 16, 2PM ET·Feddecision	34¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.23×	-2¢	134
Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	22¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.68×	+2¢	124
Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System? Closes in 175d·Fedgovnom	7¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.29×	+2¢	118
Will Kevin Warsh say Productivity at his Jul 2026 press conference? Closes in 20d·Fedmention	82¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.47×	+2¢	112
Will E. Jean Carroll be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	22¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	0.28×	+2¢	100
Will Gavin Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Federalcharg	22¢	—BUILDING BASELINE	—	+2¢	100

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