Weather Markets
Temperature and climate threshold markets, grouped by location and settlement date.
| Market | Price | Z | Vol vs peers | Distance | Since start | Vol 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the **high temp in LA** be >86° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highlax | 4¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.62× | -2¢ | — | 36,976 | |
| Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? Closes in 37h·Rainnycm | 100¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.01× | -0¢ | — | 23,431 | |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be 83-84° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highlax | 78¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.31× | +22¢ | — | 17,995 | |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be 81-82° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highlax | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 4.37× | -19¢ | — | 17,640 | |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be 79-80° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highlax | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 3.04× | +1¢ | — | 13,721 | |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be <89° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET | 96¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 3.09× | +2¢ | — | 11,698 | |
| Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? Closes in 37h·Rainmiam | 16¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.67× | +2¢ | — | 11,066 | |
| Rain in Houston in Jul 2026? Closes in 37h·Rainhoum | 100¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.68× | -0¢ | — | 10,222 | |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be <79° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highlax | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +1¢ | — | 10,105 | |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be 91-92° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.98× | +1¢ | — | 9,298 | |
| Rain in Denver in Jul 2026? Closes in 37h·Raindenm | 56¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.54× | +0¢ | — | 8,091 | |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be 85-86° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highlax | 21¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.73× | +11¢ | — | 8,033 | |
| Will Jul 2026 be the hottest Jul ever? Closes in 17d | 24¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.37× | -0¢ | — | 8,030 | |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be 89-90° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 3.36× | -2¢ | — | 7,618 | |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be >96° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +1¢ | — | 6,104 | |
| Will the high temp in Chicago be <92° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highchi | 93¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.7× | +23¢ | — | 6,002 | |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be 93-94° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.45× | +1¢ | — | 5,783 | |
| Will the high temp in Chicago be >99° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highchi | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | — | — | 5,282 | |
| Rain in Seattle in Jul 2026? Closes in 37h·Rainseam | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 3.5× | +2¢ | — | 5,053 | |
| Rain in Denver in Jul 2026? Closes in 37h·Raindenm | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.28× | +2¢ | — | 4,974 | |
| Will the high temp in Chicago be 94-95° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highchi | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.11× | +1¢ | — | 4,721 | |
| Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be <94° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highphil | 10¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.11× | -30¢ | — | 4,566 | |
| Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027? Closes in 155d·Earthquakeca | 4¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.24× | -0¢ | — | 4,364 | |
| Will the **high temp in Miami** be 90-91° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highmia | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +1¢ | — | 4,282 | |
| Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026? Settles Jul 31, 10AM ET·Droughtlevel | 9¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.01× | -1¢ | — | 4,234 | |
| Will the **high temp in Miami** be 92-93° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highmia | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.52× | +1¢ | — | 4,219 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be <85° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightbos | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +1¢ | — | 3,871 | |
| Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? Closes in 37h·Rainmiam | 13¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.54× | -2¢ | — | 3,867 | |
| Will the high temp in Chicago be 92-93° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highchi | 6¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.74× | -44¢ | — | 3,844 | |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be 95-96° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +1¢ | — | 3,681 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be <99° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightphx | 4¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.25× | -2¢ | — | 3,543 | |
| Will the high temp in Chicago be 96-97° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highchi | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | — | — | 3,238 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be <69° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightsea | 60¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.9× | +5¢ | — | 3,130 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be 87-88° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightbos | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 5.19× | +1¢ | — | 2,769 | |
| Will the **high temp in Miami** be 96-97° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highmia | 96¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 5.33× | +1¢ | — | 2,693 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be 85-86° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightbos | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 3.11× | +1¢ | — | 2,588 | |
| Rain in Chicago in Jul 2026? Closes in 37h·Rainchim | 28¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.98× | -2¢ | — | 2,398 | |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Closes in 155d | 38¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.65× | -2¢ | — | 2,342 | |
| Will Fausto be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Firsthurrica | 4¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 34.97× | +4¢ | — | 2,290 | |
| Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in July? Closes in 37h·Tornado | 52¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.8× | +2¢ | — | 2,261 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be >98° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightmin | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | — | — | 2,094 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be <99° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightdc | 18¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 4.46× | -62¢ | — | 1,984 | |
| Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Lowtnyc | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | — | — | 1,939 | |
| Will Ema be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Hurricanenam | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +2¢ | — | 1,922 | |
| Will the **high temp in Miami** be 94-95° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highmia | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 6.71× | +1¢ | — | 1,873 | |
| Will the high temp in Chicago be 98-99° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highchi | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | — | — | 1,836 | |
| Rain in Dallas in Jul 2026? Closes in 37h·Raindalm | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 3.53× | +2¢ | — | 1,811 | |
| Will the **high temp in Denver** be >96° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highden | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | — | — | 1,810 | |
| Will Akoni be the first named hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Firsthurrica | 8¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 15.55× | — | — | 1,807 | |
| Will there be more than 150 tornadoes in July? Closes in 37h·Tornado | 4¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.07× | -0¢ | — | 1,785 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be 89-90° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightbos | 74¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.24× | +34¢ | — | 1,737 | |
| Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be 94-95° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highphil | 78¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.2× | +8¢ | — | 1,726 | |
| Will the **high temp in Austin** be >91° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highaus | 28¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.63× | +8¢ | — | 1,705 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightsfo | 22¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.94× | +2¢ | — | 1,695 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be 101-102° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightdc | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.84× | +2¢ | — | 1,676 | |
| Will Elida be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Firsthurrica | 98¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | -2¢ | — | 1,662 | |
| Will the minimum temperature be <82° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Lowtphx | 32¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.29× | +6¢ | — | 1,607 | |
| Will the **high temp in Miami** be >97° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Highmia | 3¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 3.44× | -2¢ | — | 1,577 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be 91-92° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightbos | 22¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.11× | -8¢ | — | 1,525 | |
| Will Amanda be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Firsthurrica | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | — | — | 1,514 |
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