Weather Markets
Temperature and climate threshold markets, grouped by location and settlement date.
| Market | Price | Z | Vol vs peers | Distance | Vol 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the **high temp in LA** be >76° on Jul 7, 2026? Settles Jul 7, 12AM ET·Highlax | 1¢ | +0.00 | 0.78× | +1¢ | 184,957 | |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be 73-74° on Jul 7, 2026? Settles Jul 7, 12AM ET·Highlax | 100¢ | +2.91 | 1.15× | +10¢ | 146,892 | |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be 75-76° on Jul 7, 2026? Settles Jul 7, 12AM ET·Highlax | 1¢ | -3.69 | 1.0× | -9¢ | 101,858 | |
| Will the high temp in Chicago be <81° on Jul 7, 2026? Settles Jul 7, 12AM ET·Highchi | 1¢ | +0.00 | 0.53× | +1¢ | 100,315 | |
| Will the **high temp in Miami** be 90-91° on Jul 7, 2026? Settles Jul 7, 12AM ET·Highmia | 1¢ | +0.00 | 1.0× | +1¢ | 43,615 | |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be 71-72° on Jul 7, 2026? Settles Jul 7, 12AM ET·Highlax | 1¢ | +0.00MEDIUM | 0.4× | +1¢ | 43,340 | |
| Will the high temp in Chicago be 83-84° on Jul 7, 2026? Settles Jul 7, 12AM ET·Highchi | 100¢ | +1.61 | 1.63× | +4¢ | 40,325 | |
| Will Jun 2026 be the hottest Jun ever? Closes in 6d | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.67× | +1¢ | 21,517 | |
| Rain in Dallas in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Raindalm | 46¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 3.09× | -4¢ | 16,023 | |
| Rain in Houston in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainhoum | 12¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.48× | +2¢ | 14,288 | |
| Rain in Houston in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainhoum | 17¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.53× | -3¢ | 12,761 | |
| Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026? Settles Jul 31, 10AM ET·Droughtlevel | 36¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.45× | -34¢ | 9,737 | |
| Rain in Seattle in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainseam | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 3.35× | +2¢ | 6,423 | |
| Rain in Seattle in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainseam | 10¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.14× | +0¢ | 6,277 | |
| Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1039 feet in Dec 2026? Settles Dec 31, 10AM ET | 66¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.68× | +0¢ | 5,222 | |
| Jun 2026 temperature increase? Closes in 6d·Hmonthrange | 100¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 4.27× | -0¢ | 3,465 | |
| Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainnycm | 63¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.59× | -2¢ | 3,090 | |
| Jun 2026 temperature increase? Closes in 6d·Hmonthrange | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 4.3× | +1¢ | 2,345 | |
| Will there be at least 3 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026? Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET | 10¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.33× | -0¢ | 2,342 | |
| Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainsfom | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +1¢ | 1,536 | |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Closes in 175d | 23¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.17× | -2¢ | 1,518 | |
| Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027? Closes in 175d·Earthquakeca | 6¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 5.19× | +0¢ | 1,454 | |
| Will Ema be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Hurricanenam | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.99× | +2¢ | 1,290 | |
| Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in July? Closes in 22d·Tornado | 44¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.82× | -0¢ | 1,264 | |
| Rain in Los Angeles in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainlaxm | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 4.89× | +2¢ | 1,248 | |
| Will Elida be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Firsthurrica | 43¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.07× | +3¢ | 1,231 | |
| Will Fausto be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Firsthurrica | 32¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.11× | +2¢ | 1,206 | |
| Rain in Chicago in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainchim | 92¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +2¢ | 1,176 | |
| Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainmiam | 19¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 5.5× | +4¢ | 1,122 | |
| Rain in Chicago in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainchim | 64¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.18× | -0¢ | 853 | |
| Jun 2026 temperature increase? Closes in 6d·Hmonthrange | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.88× | +1¢ | 831 | |
| Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Hurctotmaj | 33¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.2× | +3¢ | 804 | |
| Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainmiam | 65¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.24× | +5¢ | 665 | |
| Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026? Settles Jul 31, 10AM ET·Droughtlevel | 70¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.85× | -0¢ | 628 | |
| Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Tropstorm | 52¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.92× | -8¢ | 551 | |
| Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in July? Closes in 22d·Tornado | 76¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.54× | +6¢ | 549 | |
| Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainmiam | 28¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 5.61× | +8¢ | 519 | |
| Rain in Seattle in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainseam | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +1¢ | 487 | |
| Will there be more than 150 tornadoes in July? Closes in 22d·Tornado | 16¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.6× | +0¢ | 486 | |
| Jun 2026 temperature increase? Closes in 6d·Hmonthrange | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +1¢ | 411 | |
| Rain in Austin in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainausm | 57¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.99× | +2¢ | 397 | |
| Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Firsthurrica | 32¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.62× | +2¢ | 333 | |
| Rain in Chicago in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainchim | 15¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.85× | +0¢ | 297 | |
| Rain in Denver in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Raindenm | 8¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.05× | +2¢ | 272 | |
| Will there be more than 18 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Tropstorm | 9¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.41× | -1¢ | 262 | |
| Jun 2026 temperature increase? Closes in 6d·Hmonthrange | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.32× | +1¢ | 256 | |
| Will there be more than 175 tornadoes in July? Closes in 22d·Tornado | 16¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.44× | +2¢ | 251 | |
| Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Hurctotmaj | 86¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.42× | +0¢ | 224 | |
| Rain in Dallas in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Raindalm | 8¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.08× | -2¢ | 207 | |
| Jul 2026 temperature increase? Closes in 37d·Hmonthrange | 34¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.58× | -1¢ | 202 | |
| Jul 2026 temperature increase? Closes in 37d·Hmonthrange | 34¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.88× | -2¢ | 200 | |
| Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1040 feet in Dec 2026? Settles Dec 31, 10AM ET | 60¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.55× | +0¢ | 200 | |
| Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Firsthurrica | 20¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.05× | +0¢ | 194 | |
| Will Jul 2026 be the hottest Jul ever? Closes in 37d | 24¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.24× | -0¢ | 189 | |
| Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Hurctotmaj | 9¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.63× | -1¢ | 159 | |
| Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainsfom | 1¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 3.03× | +1¢ | 158 | |
| Rain in Dallas in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Raindalm | 10¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 2.44× | +0¢ | 157 | |
| Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainsfom | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 1.79× | +2¢ | 144 | |
| Rain in Seattle in Jul 2026? Closes in 22d·Rainseam | 2¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | — | +2¢ | 140 | |
| Will there be more than 3 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Hurctotmaj | 22¢ | —BUILDING BASELINE | 0.38× | +2¢ | 140 |
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