LT
Logit Terminal Research
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi (licensed)
Last updated2026-07-10T03:33
Status
Not trading advice

Calibration

Definition

How closely implied probabilities matched actual outcomes: 70% markets should resolve YES about 70% of the time over large samples.

On Logit Terminal

The calibration ladder compares price buckets of settled markets with their actual YES rates, with sample sizes shown.

Caveat

Small buckets are hidden or greyed; last-second pinned prices can flatter calibration.

Guide: Prediction Market Calibration