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Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T01:48
Status
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Prediction Market Anomaly Report — 2026-07-11

As of 2026-07-11T01:48:21+00:00: 25 rankable markets carry overextension flags, 25 show elevated volatility vs peers, and 12 scheduled event-style markets are upcoming. Effectively resolved and post-event markets are excluded throughout.

Most Interesting Market Right Now
Dallas vs New York
Moved down 12.0x its typical 4h range on 221,421 contracts of 24h volume. Research flag only; not a recommendation.
Price 10¢ Move -12.00σ 24h vol 221,421 Live event · 93.8h since start·WNBA

Most Overextended

MarketTrendPriceOverextension?Vol 24hExpiry
Dallas vs New YorkLIVE
Live event · 93.8h since start·WNBA
-12.00
81,71411d
Dallas vs New YorkLIVE
Live event · 93.8h since start·WNBA
10¢-12.00
221,42111d
Dallas vs New YorkLIVE
Live event · 93.8h since start·WNBA
17¢-12.00
177,64511d
Boston vs New York M Winner?LIVE
Live event · 2.6h since start·MLB moneyline
68¢+12.00LOW
1,057,3973d
Dallas wins by over 9.5 points?LIVE
Live event · 93.8h since start·WNBA
81¢+12.00
204,96511d
Will Chicago win the Chicago vs Memphis Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026?LIVE
Live event · 21.8h since start·NBA
28¢+12.00LOW
420,74114d
Will Tampa Bay be the 2026 AL East Division Winner
Closes in 127d·MLB
54¢+11.80LOW
364127d
Will Boston win the Boston vs Toronto Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026?LIVE
Live event · 21.8h since start·NBA
22¢-11.21LOW
189,99414d
Dallas vs New YorkLIVE
Live event · 93.8h since start·WNBA
35¢-10.73
159,71311d
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Closes in 23d·Other sports
38¢+10.58LOW
15523d

Distance From Crowd Basis

MarketPriceCrowd basis?Distance?Volume profileConviction?Profiled vol
Will Angelista and Simba finish 2 Place in Love Island UK Season 13?
Settles Aug 31, 12AM ET·Loveislanduk
94¢+89¢
81%THIN249
Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 130000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week?
Closes in 36h·Albumequiv
74¢+69¢
39%7,693
Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
Settles Jul 31, 10AM ET·Droughtlevel
70¢-62¢
55%153,390
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $80 by Jul 31, 2026?
Settles Jul 31, 12AM ET
10¢70¢-60¢
72%1,060
Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?
Settles Jul 5, 12AM ET·Trumpact
10¢65¢-56¢
48%2,634
Will the number of White House Press Briefings in Jul 2026 be at least 4?
Settles Aug 1, 10AM ET·Pressbriefin
16¢70¢-54¢
40%790
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $77 by Jul 31, 2026?
Settles Jul 31, 12AM ET
21¢75¢-54¢
55%1,118
Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10?
Closes in 29d·Golf
58¢+54¢
84%4,256
ISCO Championship: Will Steven Fisk finish top 10?
Closes in 29d·Golf
73¢20¢+53¢
79%5,468
ISCO Championship: Will Lucas Glover finish top 5?
Closes in 29d·Golf
62¢10¢+52¢
45%2,200

Research flags, not recommendations. Methodology · Dashboard