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Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T01:48
Status
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Volatility Watch — 2026-07-11

Hourly logit volatility vs lifecycle/expiry peers. Low-sample baselines are labeled; pinned and post-event markets excluded.

MarketTrendPriceσ logit/hr?Vol vs peers?Vol 24h
Will San Francisco win at least 80 games this season?
Closes in 120d·MLB
29¢4.017463.47×657
Will Memphis win the Chicago vs Memphis Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026?LIVE
Live event · 21.8h since start·NBA
72¢2.880344.31×242,334
Will Luke Gutschewski win the The Blue Championship?
Closes in 15d·Other sports
2.525738.86×641
Will Brian Hualde be the Democratic nominee for AZ-05?
Closes in 481d·Azprimary
0.951937.04×439
Will Tyler Shough lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?
Closes in 213d·Other sports
1.495136.83×100
Utah Archers vs New York Atlas Winner?LIVE
Live event · 21.8h since start·Other sports
78¢2.297335.34×6,089
Will Chicago win the Chicago vs Memphis Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026?LIVE
Live event · 21.8h since start·NBA
28¢2.220734.16×420,741
What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?
Settles Jul 23, 12AM ET·Earningsment
64¢1.300232.02×1,096
What will Tesla, Inc. say during their next earnings call?
Settles Jul 22, 12AM ET·Earningsment
72¢1.294831.89×1,131
Will UberEats advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final
Settles Jul 19, 12AM ET
30¢1.095826.99×1,644
Will Tray Croft win the Ballislife 1v1 between Mike Harden and Tray Croft?LIVE
Live event · 21.8h since start·Other sports
1.74426.83×17,788
Utah Archers vs New York Atlas Winner?LIVE
Live event · 21.8h since start·Other sports
18¢1.723526.52×8,685
Will the MLBPA and MLB agree to a new CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) before Dec 2, 2026?
Settles Dec 2, 12AM ET
0.975824.03×105
Will Detroit win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?
Closes in 843d·MLB
0.574822.37×51,743
Will Jorge Martin be the Motorrad Grand Prix Deutschland winner?
Closes in 16d·Other sports
11¢1.451922.34×391

Research flags, not recommendations. Methodology · Dashboard